Summary: Home sales across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions—including the Richmond metro—slowed during February and March 2025, with colder-than-average weather and delayed spring break schedules contributing to reduced inventory and activity. As April progresses, signs point to a rebound. Prices are up modestly year-over-year, tracking closely with national inflation, and momentum is building heading into late spring.

Overall, home sales in our markets have been down year over year and most of our clients have seen reports citing a significant decline in national home sales for both February and March.  While much has been made of the impacts of tariffs and ongoing inflation to the housing market there have been other factors at play.

In the mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions, this winter brought record colds and frequent winter weather.  Even the threat of inclement winter weather has a chain effect and sellers will often defer their go to market timelines (as is our advice playbook).  Easter and school spring break schedules are another frequent tracking point for housing.  New home listings accelerate following Easter which is also the time when most school spring breaks in the region come to an end.  In 2024, this Easter/spring break period occurred the last week of March but in 2025 arrive in mid-April.  This means that many sellers and buyers have been delaying their home sale plans.

Easter and spring break were always included in our projections for a late unfolding spring market but weather was an unforeseen factor that brought overall sales down.  While we have past sales cycles that support the impact of weather and spring break on markets the true impact caused by DOGE and tariff whipsaws are harder to define.  Most of our clients looking to purchase homes have already normalized current prices and rates so market turmoil appears to have a little impact on the resale market.  On the other hand, DOGE threats have been especially disruptive to the greater DC economy.

Real estate, resale market appreciation tends to track the national inflation rate.  Most market appreciation is fully baked into pricing by late Spring and we are constantly track it to inform our seller’s pricing strategy and to ensure that our buyers write competitive offers.  Richmond’s housing economy tends to mirror national housing averages.  The table below details closed resales over the past 30 days and we find that after a decline in home sales in February and March there’s a slight increase for the month of April.  This is to be expected since the last week of March’24 would’ve had a slow down in listings and contracts that would’ve closed in April due to spring break timing.  Another observation is that days on market has increased and sales deltas have fallen showing some annual softening, however homes are still selling historically fast and price gains continue to occur.

When we focus on year-over-year average sales prices, home values for the period have increased by about 2.9%. This tracks our early year guidance and Fed reported inflation indexes have oscillated between 2.4-3%. Early year home prices tend to hit a bit above what will be the annual observed inflation rate before retreating in the late summer and fall, which means, they should climb another 1% before settling in for the year. We project that in the coming weeks new listings and sales will continue to accelerate making up for some of the early year lethargy but price gains are mostly baked into current sales prices and are unlikely to accelerate much more short of a significant decline in home borrowing rate.

Source: CVRMLS, Single Family Homes, Closed: 3.30-4.28, resales, $200k-$1m,
Core Richmond Metro: Richmond Henrico Chesterfield Powhatan Hanover Goochland

When we focus on year-over-year average sales prices, home values for the period have increased by about 2.9%. This tracks our early year guidance and Fed reported inflation indexes have oscillated between 2.4-3%. Early year home prices tend to hit a bit above what will be the annual observed inflation rate before retreating in the late summer and fall, which means, they should climb another 1% before settling in for the year. We project that in the coming weeks new listings and sales will continue to accelerate making up for some of the early year lethargy but price gains are mostly baked into current sales prices and are unlikely to accelerate much more short of a significant decline in home borrowing rate.

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